Evaluation of technical tools in predicting firm value: A case study of oil industries in Tehran stock market

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Energy Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Mazandaran University, Babolsar, Iran

2 Energy Economics. Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences. Mazandaran University, Babolsar. Iran

3 Energy Economics. Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences. Mazandaran University. Babolsar Iran

10.22080/jeem.2026.29511.1030

Abstract

This study assesses the feasibility of predicting optimal buy - and - hold timing for stocks using technical analysis tools (Relative Strength Index , Moving Average Convergence Divergence MACD , Moving average , Price Channel , Stochastic Oscillator , Ichimoku Cloud , Fibonacci Retracement and Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension) . Data were sourced from the Tehran Stock Exchange, specifically targeting companies within the refining and petrochemical sectors to minimize the impact of industry - specific news . These 14 companies exhibit similar responses to fluctuations in exchange rates , oil prices, and other significant news events . The findings indicate that most technical indicators fail to provide accurate buy signals within a 5% error margin . Among the eight indicators analyzed, only three demonstrated a success rate exceeding 5% ( percent ) . This research offers a scientific evaluation of the signaling capacity of technical tools, underscoring the necessity for caution in their application .

Keywords

Main Subjects

Journal of Energy Economics Modeling

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 26 February 2026

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 19 June 2025
  • Revise Date: 30 September 2025
  • Accept Date: 27 October 2025
  • Publish Date: 26 February 2026

Share

How to cite

Statistics