Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Associate Professor in Energy Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2
Associate Professor in Energy Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
3
Master's Student in Energy Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
10.22080/jeem.2025.29903.1031
Abstract
The price of energy has a significant impact on economic well-being in Iran, and its optimal management can contribute to increasing public welfare and sustainable economic development. In the present study, economic welfare was first calculated using a composite index of economic welfare. Then, using the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach, the asymmetric effect of relative energy prices on economic welfare during the period from 1973 to 2023 was calculated. The results obtained from calculating the welfare index indicate that from 1970 until the end of the war, the trend of economic welfare was decreasing, and after that, until the sixth development plan, it had an increasing trend, such that its average went from 24.74 in the first plan to 62.62 in the fifth plan, and in the sixth plan, it recorded an average of 53.52. Additionally, the relative price of energy (fuel) shows that the average energy price from 1970 until the end of the war, as well as in the first and second development plans, had a decreasing trend, and after that, during the third and fourth development plans, it had an increasing trend. From the fifth development plan until 2023, energy prices are again decreasing. Long-term results indicate that the relative price of energy has an indirect and asymmetric effect on economic welfare. Specifically, while the impact of increases in relative energy prices on economic welfare is not significant, decreases in relative energy prices are associated with a significant and ...
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