Investigating the impact of inflation resulting from global oil prices on the intensity of energy consumption and the growth of Iran's GDP; TVP-VAR and MF-VAR approaches
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تبریز- بلوار 29 بهمن- دانشگاه تبریز- دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت- گروه علوم اقتصادی
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شهرستان کلیبر روستای قلعه کندی
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شهرستان آذرشهر- سازمان برق منطقه ای
10.22080/jeem.2025.27849.1017
Abstract
Cheap energy, high and permanent inflation, low economic growth, high liquidity growth, unbalanced budget and insufficient investment in Iran are among the complications of oil dependence.Not paying attention to the changes in the global oil price has played a very important role in the changes in the macroeconomic factors of Iran.The present study, using the TVP-VAR method, in the time period of 1402-1376, investigated the effect of oil price inflation on consumption intensity and economic growth.The results of the TVP-VAR method show that the increase in the global price of oil has caused a budget deficit and money creation, and thus inflation has appeared in Iran.Also, the results confirm that whenever the effect of the monetary base on inflation has intensified, the price of crude oil has also had a positive effect on Iran's inflation. In the continuation of this study, by using the method of Mixed-data sampling with different frequency, the response of inflation to the oil price shock has been estimated on the intensity of energy consumption and economic growth. The results of this method show that in autumn and spring, inflation caused by changes in oil prices had a negative effect on the intensity of energy consumption and thus economic growth increased. On the other hand, in winter and summer, inflation resulting from changes in oil prices had a positive effect on the intensity of energy consumption and thus economic growth decreased.
اصغرپور قورچی, ح. , Heydari, H. , & TOTONCHI, M. (2024). Investigating the impact of inflation resulting from global oil prices on the intensity of energy consumption and the growth of Iran's GDP; TVP-VAR and MF-VAR approaches. Journal of Energy Economics Modeling, 2(1), -. doi: 10.22080/jeem.2025.27849.1017
MLA
حسین اصغرپور قورچی; Hossein Heydari; MOJTABA TOTONCHI. "Investigating the impact of inflation resulting from global oil prices on the intensity of energy consumption and the growth of Iran's GDP; TVP-VAR and MF-VAR approaches", Journal of Energy Economics Modeling, 2, 1, 2024, -. doi: 10.22080/jeem.2025.27849.1017
HARVARD
اصغرپور قورچی, ح., Heydari, H., TOTONCHI, M. (2024). 'Investigating the impact of inflation resulting from global oil prices on the intensity of energy consumption and the growth of Iran's GDP; TVP-VAR and MF-VAR approaches', Journal of Energy Economics Modeling, 2(1), pp. -. doi: 10.22080/jeem.2025.27849.1017
CHICAGO
ح. اصغرپور قورچی , H. Heydari and M. TOTONCHI, "Investigating the impact of inflation resulting from global oil prices on the intensity of energy consumption and the growth of Iran's GDP; TVP-VAR and MF-VAR approaches," Journal of Energy Economics Modeling, 2 1 (2024): -, doi: 10.22080/jeem.2025.27849.1017
VANCOUVER
اصغرپور قورچی, ح., Heydari, H., TOTONCHI, M. Investigating the impact of inflation resulting from global oil prices on the intensity of energy consumption and the growth of Iran's GDP; TVP-VAR and MF-VAR approaches. Journal of Energy Economics Modeling, 2024; 2(1): -. doi: 10.22080/jeem.2025.27849.1017
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